Gameweek Review: My Predictions vs The Madness of Reality

This week I took on the ten Premier League fixtures armed with numbers, form, and a wildly optimistic sense of certainty. Reality responded with late goals, seven-goal thrillers and a 4–5 scoreline that looked like it had been typed by a cat walking over the keyboard.

In total I walked away with 6 points: - 🎯 1 perfect score - ✅ 3 correct results - 🤡 6 games where football simply refused to cooperate

Below is my full breakdown of how each prediction fared, using goals, shots, and shots on target to see whether my calls were smart, unlucky, or just plain delusional.

---

Newcastle vs Tottenham

My prediction: Newcastle 1–2 Tottenham Actual result: Newcastle 2–2 Tottenham Points: 0

Newcastle racked up 19 shots to 8, and 7–2 on target. I was backing a narrow Tottenham win, but the numbers scream “Newcastle were on it”. With that kind of shot volume, a draw feels the least they deserved.

I read this as: good idea to expect a tight game, bad idea to back against a side creating that many chances at home.

---

Bournemouth vs Everton

My prediction: Bournemouth 1–1 Everton Actual result: Bournemouth 0–1 Everton Points: 0

This looked like a low-event, low-scoring draw on paper. It was low scoring – just not very equal.

Bournemouth managed only 5 shots with 2 on target, while Everton fired 13 shots with 3 on target. That shot count tells the story: my 1–1 needed Bournemouth to offer more than a polite wave in attack.

Lesson: when the away side more than doubles the shot count, the “both teams to score” optimism takes a hit.

---

Fulham vs Man City

My prediction: Fulham 0–3 Man City Actual result: Fulham 4–5 Man City Points: 1

I went for the standard “City turn up, score three, keep it neat” script. Instead, the match turned into a nine-goal epic where defending was optional and the scoreboard operator needed a lie-down.

Fulham had 12 shots, 6 on target, while City replied with 11 shots, 4 on target. It wasn’t one-way traffic: Fulham genuinely traded blows here.

I still got the result right (away win), but my clean, clinical 0–3 fantasy was replaced by full-on arcade mode.

---

Leeds vs Chelsea

My prediction: Leeds 0–2 Chelsea Actual result: Leeds 3–1 Chelsea Points: 0

This was supposed to be the calm, controlled away performance. Instead, Leeds decided to treat it like a cup tie.

They produced 17 shots to Chelsea’s 14, and led 5–2 on target. That isn’t smash-and-grab; that’s sustained pressure.

My 0–2 call was miles off. The stats back up the reality: Leeds fully earned the upset here.

---

Liverpool vs Sunderland

My prediction: Liverpool 2–1 Sunderland Actual result: Liverpool 1–1 Sunderland Points: 0

I went for a narrow Liverpool win, but this finished level – and the numbers are fascinating.

Liverpool peppered the goal with 23 shots, yet only 4 were on target. Sunderland, by contrast, had just 9 shots but hit 6 on target – more accuracy from fewer attempts.

So my prediction of Liverpool just edging it was half-right in feel: they were on the front foot, but Sunderland’s efficiency meant the draw was no robbery.

---

Brighton vs Aston Villa

My prediction: Brighton 1–2 Aston Villa Actual result: Brighton 3–4 Aston Villa Points: 1

I promised goals, and the game delivered a seven-goal thriller. Brighton had 16 shots to Villa’s 14, and the big one: shots on target 7–10 in Villa’s favour.

So while my 1–2 prediction was a more modest scoreline, I absolutely had the right read: open game, away side nicking it. Villa simply upgraded my script from “2–1 sensible win” to “4–3 chaos movie”.

---

Burnley vs Crystal Palace

My prediction: Burnley 1–2 Crystal Palace Actual result: Burnley 0–1 Crystal Palace Points: 1

Burnley actually edged the basic numbers: 11 shots to 3, and 4–3 on target. But the only column that matters – goals – stayed stubbornly at zero for them.

I called a 1–2, so I had the away win and the idea of Burnley at least making a game of it. The performance matched that, even if the finishing didn’t. One of those where the prediction shape was right, the fine detail wasn’t.

---

Arsenal vs Brentford

My prediction: Arsenal 2–0 Brentford Actual result: Arsenal 2–0 Brentford Points: 3 ✅ Perfect

My one masterpiece of the week.

Arsenal dominated with 15 shots to 6, and 7–1 on target. The stats read like a job well done: control, chance creation, and minimal threat allowed the other way.

This was exactly the kind of routine home win I pictured – and for once, football politely followed the script.

---

Wolves vs Nott’m Forest

My prediction: Wolves 1–1 Nott’m Forest Actual result: Wolves 0–1 Nott’m Forest Points: 0

I went for a scrappy draw. What I got was a scrappy away win.

Wolves only managed 5 shots with 1 on target, while Forest produced 10 shots and 3 on target. Forest also racked up more corners and matched Wolves for bookings, so this wasn’t a smash-and-grab – more like a solid away performance in a low-quality game.

The draw idea wasn’t terrible, but Wolves didn’t do enough to justify it.

---

Man United vs West Ham

My prediction: Man United 2–1 West Ham Actual result: Man United 1–1 West Ham Points: 0

I expected United to edge this, and the numbers suggest they probably should have.

United finished with 17 shots to 11 and a 4–3 advantage on target. The corners were level at 6–6, but United’s extra attempts hinted at a side pushing harder for the win.

From a prediction point of view, this was close: I had the home side shading a tight one, and the stats say they had enough to justify that, even if the final scoreline didn’t cooperate.

---

Overall Verdict

Across the ten fixtures:

- I finished with 6 points. - The scoreline radar was a bit off, but the shape of games was often right: - Away win for Palace? ✔️ - Tight, attacking chaos at Brighton? ✔️ - Comfortable Arsenal home win to nil? ✔️ - City winning at Fulham? ✔️ (eventually, after the goal-fest from another universe)

No xG in this dataset, but the shots and shots-on-target numbers back up a lot of my thinking – even in the games where the result didn’t fall my way.

Next week, I’ll be back armed with the same stats, slightly bruised confidence, and the eternal belief that the ball might finally start bouncing my way.