🌟 Premier League Gameweek 15 — Full Preview & Predictions
Armed with a full set of match stats from this season – goals, shots, shots on target and home/away splits – this preview tries to be more than just vibes. Before diving into each fixture, here are a couple of league-wide trends from the data so far:
- Home teams score 1.59 goals per game, away teams 1.22. - Home sides average 1.66 points per game, away sides just 1.13 – a clear home edge. - Home teams also shoot more: 13.2 vs 10.7 shots per game, and 4.5 vs 3.6 shots on target.
So yes, home advantage is very real in this dataset – more goals, more shots, more points.
For each game below, I look at:
- Overall attack/defence strength (goals for/against per game) - Home vs away splits - Shooting volume and accuracy - Any quirky patterns that the raw numbers reveal
Then I commit to a scoreline, because what’s the point of all this data if you don’t nail your colours to the mast?
---
Aston Villa vs Arsenal
Aston Villa (home): - 1.57 home goals scored per game, only 0.71 conceded. - Around 5.0 shots on target per home game, comfortably above the league average for away sides.
Arsenal (away): - Concede just 0.71 goals per away game – one of the best away defences in the data. - Create about 5.0 shots on target away, very healthy output.
This is a clash between a strong home side and the league’s most efficient overall unit. Villa are no pushovers, but Arsenal’s defensive numbers are elite: 0.50 goals conceded per game overall, 0.29 per home game, 0.71 away.
Given those numbers, it’s hard to see Villa running riot. I expect a proper game, but Arsenal’s control and edge in both goals and shots nudges this towards the visitors.
Prediction: Aston Villa 1–2 Arsenal
---
Bournemouth vs Chelsea
Bournemouth (home): - Very tidy at home: 1.43 goals scored, 0.71 conceded. - Generate 13.1 shots per game overall, with strong shots-on-target volume.
Chelsea (away): - One of the most dangerous away attacks: 2.14 away goals per game, with only 1.14 conceded. - Away shots on target at 5.1 per game, which is excellent.
The data paints Chelsea as one of the league’s best travelling sides – they score freely and don’t concede much away. Bournemouth are better than their reputation, though: their home defence is tight and their shot numbers are strong.
I’m leaning towards Chelsea having just a bit too much quality in both boxes, but not by a big margin.
Prediction: Bournemouth 1–2 Chelsea
---
Everton vs Nott’m Forest
Everton (home): - Average 1.14 home goals, 1.29 conceded – basically mid-table solidity. - Lots of efforts: just under 10.6 shots per game, but relatively low shots-on-target.
Nott’m Forest (away): - Struggle away from home: 0.86 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per away game. - They do shoot a fair bit but don’t translate that into many goals.
Forest’s away record is soft defensively and not threatening enough going forward. Everton at home are not spectacular, but they’re stable and get enough shots away to chip through a shaky away defence.
The numbers lean towards a controlled home win without it turning into a rout.
Prediction: Everton 2–1 Nott’m Forest
---
Man City vs Sunderland
Man City (home): - The most explosive home attack in the league data: 2.71 goals per home game. - Create a storm of chances: 6.9 shots on target per home match.
Sunderland (away): - Defensively respectable away: 1.0 goals conceded per game. - But only 0.57 goals scored away, one of the lowest in the division.
Sunderland are solid overall, but City at home are in “good luck stopping us” territory: huge shot volume, lots of shots on target, and a strong defensive record too.
With Sunderland’s limited away goal threat, the most likely pattern is City dominating and Sunderland hanging on for long periods.
Prediction: Man City 3–0 Sunderland
---
Newcastle vs Burnley
Newcastle (home): - Score 1.71 goals per home game, concede 1.29. - Take nearly 12.3 shots per match, with 5.4 shots on target at home – very active in attack.
Burnley (away): - Away record is rough: 3.0 goals conceded per game, one of the highest in the league. - They do score a bit themselves (1.43 goals per away game), but the defence leaks heavily.
This has the feel of a game where Burnley’s open style and weak away defending meet a Newcastle attack that loves to shoot. There is definitely room for Burnley to nick a goal, but the balance of chances should favour Newcastle strongly.
Prediction: Newcastle 3–1 Burnley
---
Tottenham vs Brentford
Tottenham (home): - Average 1.14 home goals, conceding 1.29. - Their overall attack is decent, but not among the absolute elite.
Brentford (away): - Score 0.86 goals per away game but concede 2.0. - Shots and shots on target suggest they attack with intent but leave space behind.
Both teams sit in that “dangerous but flawed” middle band: they can score, they can also get dragged into chaos.
The data hints at goals both ways: Tottenham’s home defence isn’t watertight and Brentford’s away matches tend to be open. I expect a high-chance game where Spurs just edge it thanks to slightly better balance.
Prediction: Tottenham 2–1 Brentford
---
Leeds vs Liverpool
Leeds (home): - Home attack at 1.43 goals per game, conceding 1.14 – not bad going forward but very leaky overall this season. - Take an impressive 12.3 shots per match, but their defence has shipped 1.86 goals per game overall.
Liverpool (away): - Overall goal difference is exactly neutral: 1.5 scored, 1.5 conceded per game. - Away they score 1.43, concede 1.71, with good shot numbers.
Leeds at home tend to play with the handbrake off, and Liverpool are not exactly shy about trading chances either. The combination screams “end-to-end game” rather than tight chess match.
Given Liverpool’s superior squad depth and better underlying numbers in both goals and shots, I’m leaning towards the away side, but I do think Leeds get on the scoresheet.
Prediction: Leeds 1–3 Liverpool
---
Brighton vs West Ham
Brighton (home): - Home scoring at 2.14 goals per game, conceding 1.43. - Tons of shots: 12.9 per game, with strong shots-on-target figures.
West Ham (away): - Concede 1.57 goals per away game, which is on the high side. - Score 1.14, so they aren’t completely blunt, but the defensive numbers are worrying.
Brighton’s style is high-volume, high-risk: create a lot, give a bit away. West Ham leak goals and don’t control matches well enough to shut that down.
The stats line up neatly for a Brighton home win with chances for both sides.
Prediction: Brighton 3–1 West Ham
---
Fulham vs Crystal Palace
Fulham (home): - Home record: 1.86 goals scored, 1.14 conceded. - They shoot plenty – 11.7 shots per game – and their home attack is quietly dangerous.
Crystal Palace (away): - One of the most efficient away defences: only 0.57 goals conceded per away game. - Score 1.29 away goals per match with solid shots-on-target numbers.
This is a sneaky, interesting fixture. Fulham’s home strength meets a Palace side that travel very well, with just 4 goals conceded away all season.
The numbers point to a tight game with limited scoring: Palace don’t allow much, and while Fulham are better at home, they may find clear chances at a premium.
Prediction: Fulham 1–1 Crystal Palace
---
Wolves vs Man United
Wolves (home): - A really worrying attack: only 0.86 home goals per game, and 0.5 goals per game overall. - Shots aren’t awful, but the conversion rate is – not enough quality chances.
Man United (away): - Score 1.43 goals per away game, concede 1.86. - Away shots on target at 4.3 per game, which is healthy.
Wolves struggle badly in front of goal, and United – for all their chaos – at least carry consistent attacking threat away from home. United do concede, so a perfect clean sheet prediction feels brave, but Wolves’ scoring record is poor enough to tempt it.
I’ll compromise slightly: United to win with Wolves largely kept at arm’s length.
Prediction: Wolves 0–2 Man United
---
Summary of Predicted Scores
- Aston Villa 1–2 Arsenal - Bournemouth 1–2 Chelsea - Everton 2–1 Nott’m Forest - Man City 3–0 Sunderland - Newcastle 3–1 Burnley - Tottenham 2–1 Brentford - Leeds 1–3 Liverpool - Brighton 3–1 West Ham - Fulham 1–1 Crystal Palace - Wolves 0–2 Man United
These predictions lean into:
- A real, measurable home advantage in the league as a whole - The strongest attacking units (Man City, Arsenal, Brighton) continuing to deliver - Weaker away defences (Burnley, West Ham, Forest) being exposed on the road - A couple of tighter, more cagey matches where the defensive data deserves respect (Fulham vs Palace in particular)
Now the fun part is seeing how much of this the football gods allow to survive contact with reality.