Premier League Weekend Preview: Form, xG & Fragile Confidence

Another Premier League weekend is upon us, which means two things are guaranteed: 1) Someone near the bottom will suddenly look competent 2) At least one “banker” will explode within 20 minutes

Using season-to-date results, recent form lines, and a simple expected-goals trend model (derived from shots, shots on target, and goals in the dataset), here’s a grounded-but-realistic look at this weekend’s fixtures only.

---

Bournemouth vs Arsenal

Prediction: 1–1 Expected Goals (xG): 1.15 – 1.53

Arsenal sit top of the league and deservedly so, but Bournemouth at home have consistently generated chances above what their league position suggests. Arsenal’s defence is elite, yet away games like this often turn into “control without comfort”.

Call: Arsenal dominate territory, Bournemouth nick one.

---

Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest

Prediction: 1–1 xG: 1.44 – 1.60

Villa are flying high in the table, but Forest’s numbers quietly point to a side that creates more than it finishes. Villa’s recent wins have leaned on efficiency rather than dominance.

Call: Even game, goals cancel each other out.

---

Brighton vs Burnley

Prediction: 2–1 Brighton xG: 1.93 – 1.33

Burnley continue to concede a worrying volume of chances, particularly away from home. Brighton’s attacking metrics remain strong even when results wobble.

Call: Brighton create enough to edge it.

---

Everton vs Brentford

Prediction: 1–1 xG: 1.19 – 1.16

This has “functional football” written all over it. Neither side consistently overwhelms opponents, but both are hard to break down when organised.

Call: Low margin, low drama, shared points.

---

Fulham vs Liverpool

Prediction: 1–1 xG: 1.07 – 1.29

Liverpool remain dangerous going forward, but their defensive xG against is higher than you’d expect for a title contender. Fulham at home usually generate enough to punish lapses.

Call: Liverpool lead, Fulham respond.

---

Leeds vs Manchester United

Prediction: 1–1 xG: 1.65 – 1.77

United’s attacking numbers suggest goals, but Leeds’ home games are rarely quiet. Leeds concede chances — but also force chaos.

Call: United create more, Leeds make it messy.

---

Manchester City vs Chelsea

Prediction: 2–1 Man City xG: 2.04 – 1.07

City’s chance creation remains the best in the league. Chelsea’s attack is improving, but their defensive numbers still lag behind the elite.

Call: City control it, Chelsea threaten without fully convincing.

---

Newcastle vs Crystal Palace

Prediction: 2–1 Newcastle xG: 1.88 – 1.17

Newcastle’s home xG profile is strong, particularly down the flanks. Palace are competitive, but often allow sustained pressure.

Call: Newcastle eventually wear them down.

---

Tottenham vs Sunderland

Prediction: 1–0 Tottenham xG: 1.33 – 0.90

Sunderland’s league position deserves respect, but their away attacking output is more modest. Spurs’ numbers suggest control without fireworks.

Call: Spurs grind out a narrow win.

---

Wolves vs West Ham

Prediction: 1–2 West Ham xG: 1.25 – 1.63

Wolves’ season-long metrics are brutal: poor chance creation, leaky defence, and confidence erosion. West Ham aren’t dominant, but they are functional.

Call: Wolves compete, West Ham punish.

---

Weekend Summary

- Most likely home win: Man City vs Chelsea - Most likely draw: Everton vs Brentford - Biggest form mismatch: Wolves vs West Ham - Potential upset alert: Bournemouth vs Arsenal

As always, expect at least two of these to be immediately wrong by Saturday lunchtime.