Premier League 2025–26 • Gameweek 1 Review & Prediction Tracker
A season‑long saga of scorelines, spreadsheets, and (the occasional) schadenfreude.Welcome back to the weekly two‑parter: (1) a preview blog with predictions and “3 best chances”, and (2) a review blog where we check what actually happened, learn from the chaos, and lovingly tinker with the model like it’s a temperamental espresso machine. This post is the Gameweek 1 review.
Our process uses the supplied season data for match results and performance stats (shots, shots on target, corners, cards) plus a Poisson framework built from recent seasons. No hand‑wavy vibes; just data, a calculator, and an honest look at where we nailed it and where football reminded us it’s football.
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Liverpool vs Bournemouth – Prediction: 2–1 | Actual: 4–2
Liverpool opened the campaign with a fireworks display. The model had both teams scoring and a narrow home win; reality said “same idea, turn it up.” - Shots (on target): 19 (10) – 10 (3) - Corners: 6 – 7 - Cards: 1 – 2What we learned: The shape was right—Bournemouth’s transitions were live, but elite home attacks often push the scoreline into “over” territory on opening weekends. We’ll dial higher variance for top home favourites when early‑season legs are fresh.
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Aston Villa vs Newcastle – Prediction: 0–1 | Actual: 0–0
Cagey, tense, and almost aggressively low event at times. Our pick leaned to a tactical smash‑and‑grab; it landed on stalemate. - Shots (on target): 3 (3) – 16 (3) - Corners: 3 – 6 - Cards: 1 – 1 (plus 1 red for the hosts)What we learned: When both sides project sub‑1.0 xG, we’ll boost draw priors instead of forcing a razor‑thin winner. Also: a red card without a goal swing is your weekly reminder that football is a paradox.
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Brighton vs Fulham – Prediction: 1–1 | Actual: 1–1 ✅
On‑brand Brighton: control, pressure, and not quite enough conversion. Fulham were compact, opportunistic, and perfectly content with parity. - Shots (on target): 10 (4) – 7 (2) - Corners: 4 – 3 - Cards: 3 – 3What we learned: Our model already bakes in Brighton’s finishing underperformance vs chance creation; keep that lever exactly where it is.
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Sunderland vs West Ham – Prediction: 1–1 | Actual: 3–0
The Stadium of Light turned into a sound system. Promoted side bounce? Oh yes. We expected competitive; we got commanding. - Shots (on target): 10 (5) – 12 (4) - Corners: 5 – 7 - Cards: 0 – 1What we learned: We underweighted promotion momentum at home in August. That gets a patch: small early‑season uplift for promoted sides, especially in front of a bouncing crowd.
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Tottenham vs Burnley – Prediction: 2–1 | Actual: 3–0
We had Spurs winning with a Burnley consolation; instead it was a clean, controlled home cruise. - Shots (on target): 16 (6) – 14 (4) - Corners: 6 – 5 - Cards: 0 – 0What we learned: Against strong home sides, newly promoted/defensively‑porous visitors get a lower away scoring prior. Sometimes the door is firmly shut.
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Wolves vs Man City – Prediction: 0–1 | Actual: 0–4
Our narrow City win was technically correct on winner, philosophically wrong on scale. City didn’t just control; they accelerated. - Shots (on target): 9 (3) – 15 (4) - Corners: 4 – 6 - Cards: 1 – 2What we learned: Elite attacks can rack up goals from few on‑target attempts because chance quality + finishing skill ≠ league average. We’ll widen City/Liverpool goal spread distributions to allow more comfortable margins.
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Chelsea vs Crystal Palace – Prediction: 2–0 | Actual: 0–0
Chelsea had territory and set‑piece volume; Palace had concentration and a point. - Shots (on target): 19 (3) – 12 (4) - Corners: 11 – 2 - Cards: 2 – 3What we learned: Our model still overestimates Chelsea’s attacking conversion in games they control. Until the finishing data says otherwise, we’ll trim their expected goals converted without punting on their chance volume.
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Nott’m Forest vs Brentford – Prediction: 2–0 | Actual: 3–1
Forest’s home mood remains a thing. We read the room correctly, missed the Brentford set‑piece punch. - Shots (on target): 11 (5) – 10 (3) - Corners: 5 – 5 - Cards: 1 – 2What we learned: Brentford’s “we’ll still nick one” persona is alive. We’ll add a set‑piece goal kicker for them (and a few similar sides) in otherwise negative game states.
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Man United vs Arsenal – Prediction: 2–2 | Actual: 0–1
We braced for a punch‑for‑punch opener. Instead: chess. United produced volume but not incision; Arsenal pinched it. - Shots (on target): 22 (7) – 9 (3) - Corners: 3 – 4 - Cards: 1 – 4What we learned: Big‑six head‑to‑heads often go under because risk management takes over. We’ll apply a rivalry dampener on total goals and lean more toward one‑goal margins or draws.
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Leeds vs Everton – Prediction: 1–0 ✅ | Actual: 1–0 ✅
A scrappy opener that did exactly what it said on the tin. - Shots (on target): 21 (3) – 7 (1) - Corners: 7 – 2 - Cards: 0 – 2What we learned: Low‑scoring, bottom‑half six‑pointers are Poisson paradise. Keep the faith, keep the clean sheets.
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📊 Week 1 Prediction Scoreboard
Matchday Breakdown
- ✅ Exact scorelines (2): - Brighton vs Fulham (1–1) - Leeds vs Everton (1–0)- ⚖️ Correct results (4 total, including exacts): - Manchester City win - Spurs win - Nottingham Forest win - Liverpool win
- ❌ Wrong picks (4): - Aston Villa vs Newcastle - Sunderland vs West Ham - Chelsea vs Crystal Palace - Manchester United vs Arsenal
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📅 Prediction League Table
| Week | 🎯 Exact | ⚖️ Correct (incl. exact) | ❌ Wrong | 🏅 Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | 6 | 4 | 10 |
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Five Fixes We’re Shipping Before Gameweek 2
Because the only thing better than hindsight is documented hindsight:1. Elite‑attack variance bump Heavier tails for City/Liverpool scorelines, especially at home or vs mid‑table defences. Correct winner is nice; getting the margin right is nicer.
2. Promoted‑side bounce factor Temporary uplift for promoted clubs in early home fixtures. Sunderland didn’t just ride the wave—they surfed it.
3. Rivalry/Top‑six dampener Lower goal expectations for big head‑to‑heads. High tactical discipline = fewer haymakers.
4. Chelsea conversion haircut Keep strong chance creation, trim finishing expectation until the numbers flip. Fewer auto 2–0s in stalemate‑friendly spots.
5. Set‑piece kicker for Brentford (& friends) Add a bonus “still likely to nick one” probability through restarts even in losing scripts.
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The Fun Bit: “What We Got Right” vs “What Football Did Anyway”
Right‑ish: - The shape of many games: Brighton–Fulham (tight), Leeds–Everton (scrappy), Forest strong at home. - Liverpool & City to win (yep); just give City the button for comfortable next time.
Chaos‑ish: - Sunderland, dear lord. The model politely asked for a draw; the crowd supplied a jubilant 3–0. Adjustments incoming. - Chelsea–Palace went from “control and convert” to “control and contemplate”. The finishing haircut is now a living haircut.
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Looking Ahead
In the preview blog before Gameweek 2, you’ll get: - Fresh Poisson projections informed by this week’s reality checks - A quick scan for Thursday–Sunday fatigue (hello, European travellers) - A guided tour of the 3 best chances per the updated numbersAlso: our Season Tracker table will tick along every week so you can measure the bragging rights (or gently roast the misses).
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Data & Method Notes
- Results, shots, shots on target, corners, and cards come directly from the supplied 2025–26 season file. - Predictions based on a Poisson framework using last season’s data + this season’s new results, adjusted for home/away strength and opponent quality. - No name‑drops unless verified current; we’re sticking to clubs, shapes, and numbers.---