After a chaotic Gameweek 10 where some top sides dropped points and predictions misfired, focus shifts to stability. Arsenal lead the way with City and Liverpool close behind, while Wolves, Burnley, and Forest continue to struggle. Using xG trends, form from the last five matches, and home/away performances, here’s the deep dive for Gameweek 11.
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⚽ Saturday, 8 November 2025
Tottenham Hotspur vs Manchester United – Prediction: 2–1
Tottenham’s home numbers remain strong (xG 1.8 avg; xGA 1.1), while United still leak chances away from home (xGA 1.6). Both teams tend to leave space behind, so goals are likely — but Spurs’ intensity at home should make the difference. Takeaway: Spurs edge an open game; United inconsistent on the road. - Model xG: 1.9 – 1.3---
Everton vs Fulham – Prediction: 1–1
Both sides are underwhelming statistically: Everton (xG 1.05; xGA 1.30) and Fulham (xG 1.10; xGA 1.50). Everton’s low shot volume and Fulham’s soft defending suggest a stalemate. Takeaway: Low quality, low scoring — draw likely. - Model xG: 1.2 – 1.1---
West Ham United vs Burnley – Prediction: 2–0
West Ham’s home numbers (xG 1.7) point to improvement, and Burnley continue to produce very little up front (xG just 0.75 per game). After Burnley’s latest loss, confidence looks low. Takeaway: West Ham too strong; Burnley blunt again. - Model xG: 1.9 – 0.6---
Sunderland vs Arsenal – Prediction: 0–3
Sunderland’s rise has been admirable, but Arsenal’s dominance and composure stand apart. With the league’s best defence (xGA 0.85) and strong possession control, Arsenal should handle the occasion. Takeaway: Arsenal ruthless; Sunderland reality check. - Model xG: 0.7 – 2.4---
Chelsea vs Wolverhampton Wanderers – Prediction: 2–1
Chelsea’s home xG (2.0) remains solid, but they’ve been wasteful. Wolves are creating chances (~1.1 xG) but failing to convert. This feels like a grind rather than a cruise for Chelsea. Takeaway: Chelsea win narrowly; Wolves show fight but fall short. - Model xG: 1.9 – 1.0---
⚽ Sunday, 9 November 2025
Aston Villa vs AFC Bournemouth – Prediction: 2–2
Both sides have shown attacking bravery but defensive inconsistency. Villa’s home xG 1.8 vs Bournemouth’s away xG 1.5 suggests goals at both ends. Takeaway: Exciting draw; both sides value entertainment over structure. - Model xG: 1.9 – 1.8---
Brentford vs Newcastle United – Prediction: 1–2
Newcastle’s transitional play should trouble Brentford, who concede over 1.6 xGA per match. Brentford press high but are often punished by quicker sides. Takeaway: Newcastle sharper, but not without tension. - Model xG: 1.4 – 1.8---
Crystal Palace vs Brighton & Hove Albion – Prediction: 1–1
A heated derby where both clubs often cancel each other out. Palace’s disciplined defence (xGA 0.9) meets Brighton’s high-risk attack (xG 1.7, xGA 1.5). Takeaway: Intense but even; draw feels right. - Model xG: 1.2 – 1.3---
Nottingham Forest vs Leeds United – Prediction: 0–2
Forest’s numbers are among the league’s weakest (xG 0.7; xGA 1.9). Leeds are better structured and create steady chances through transitions. Takeaway: Leeds punish Forest’s defensive lapses. - Model xG: 0.9 – 2.0---
Manchester City vs Liverpool – Prediction: 2–2
The headline clash of the week. City (xG 2.0; xGA 0.8) vs Liverpool (xG 1.9; xGA 1.1) is as tight as it gets. Both sides attack relentlessly; both occasionally switch off defensively. Takeaway: Tactical masterclass with goals both ways. - Model xG: 2.2 – 2.1---
📊 Summary Table
| Fixture | Prediction | xG Model | Key Takeaway | |----------|-------------|----------|---------------| | Tottenham vs Man United | 2–1 | 1.9–1.3 | Spurs edge open game | | Everton vs Fulham | 1–1 | 1.2–1.1 | Tight draw | | West Ham vs Burnley | 2–0 | 1.9–0.6 | Burnley blunt | | Sunderland vs Arsenal | 0–3 | 0.7–2.4 | Arsenal dominant | | Chelsea vs Wolves | 2–1 | 1.9–1.0 | Chelsea narrow win | | Aston Villa vs Bournemouth | 2–2 | 1.9–1.8 | Even contest | | Brentford vs Newcastle | 1–2 | 1.4–1.8 | Newcastle sharper | | Crystal Palace vs Brighton | 1–1 | 1.2–1.3 | Derby draw | | Nottingham Forest vs Leeds | 0–2 | 0.9–2.0 | Forest poor form | | Man City vs Liverpool | 2–2 | 2.2–2.1 | Big-match draw |
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🔑 Insights
- Arsenal and City remain the most reliable xG performers in both attack and defence. - Burnley, Wolves, and Forest still rank bottom in both xG and points per game. - Expect tight margins across mid-table matches — especially Villa vs Bournemouth and Palace vs Brighton. - Spurs and Chelsea must show consistency to stay with the top five.---