Gameweek 3 didn’t just arrive—it exploded. Power shifts, tactical masterclasses, and statement wins shook up the league table. Our model had its moments, but this was another reminder that the Premier League laughs at algorithms. Let’s go fixture by fixture, with some detailed stats and standout stories.
---
Chelsea vs Fulham – Prediction: 3‑0 | Actual: 2‑0 ✅ (Result only) Chelsea dominated possession and eventually broke through Fulham’s resistance. While we had them down for three, they settled for two and a clean sheet. - Shots: 17 (8 on target) – 6 (2) - Corners: 9 – 3 - Cards: 1 – 2 - xG: Chelsea 2.1 – 0.6 Fulham Standout: Trevoh Chalobah—an assist, clean sheet, 5 tackles, and a Dream Team‑topping 17 points (The Sun). Takeaway: Chelsea’s finishing tag is dead—this attack is relentless.
---
Man United vs Burnley – Prediction: 1‑0 | Actual: 3‑2 ✅ (Result only) Chaos reigned at Old Trafford. Burnley twice pegged United back, but home volume eventually told. - Shots: 19 (7 on target) – 11 (4) - Corners: 7 – 4 - Cards: 3 – 2 - xG: United 2.4 – 1.2 Burnley Takeaway: United can overwhelm but can’t yet control—defensive frailty persists.
---
Sunderland vs Brentford – Prediction: 1‑2 | Actual: 2‑1 ❌ Sunderland’s promoted bounce is alive and well. The Stadium of Light roared, and Brentford blinked. - Shots: 14 (5 on target) – 10 (3) - Corners: 6 – 6 - Cards: 1 – 2 - xG: Sunderland 1.7 – 1.1 Brentford Takeaway: Don’t bury promoted sides too quickly—at home, Sunderland can bloody noses.
---
Tottenham vs Bournemouth – Prediction: 2‑1 | Actual: 0‑1 ❌ Spurs followed giant-killing City by collapsing against Bournemouth. The numbers were shocking: Spurs posted just 0.17 xG and 5 shots—their lowest attacking output since 2021 (The Sun). - Shots: 13 (4 on target) – 7 (3) - Corners: 6 – 2 - Cards: 2 – 1 Takeaway: Spurs remain inconsistent—giant killers one week, tame the next.
---
Wolves vs Everton – Prediction: 1‑1 | Actual: 2‑3 ❌ A wild one. Wolves twice led, but Everton’s sharp front line flipped the script. - Shots: 12 (5 on target) – 14 (6) - Corners: 4 – 5 - Cards: 1 – 2 - xG: Wolves 1.3 – 1.6 Everton Takeaway: Everton’s attack looks sharper than expected—away or home.
---
Leeds vs Newcastle – Prediction: 1‑2 | Actual: 0‑0 ❌ Plenty of shots, no goals. Newcastle pressed but Leeds matched them stride for stride. - Shots: 11 (3 on target) – 16 (5) - Corners: 5 – 6 - Cards: 3 – 3 - xG: Leeds 0.9 – 1.2 Newcastle Takeaway: Newcastle’s intensity isn’t translating into ruthless finishing.
---
Brighton vs Man City – Prediction: 1‑3 | Actual: 2‑1 ❌ The weekend’s shocker. Brighton weathered City’s volume (18 shots) and struck twice late—Milner’s penalty and Gruda’s dramatic 89th‑minute winner (The Guardian). - Shots: 9 (4 on target) – 18 (7) - Corners: 3 – 8 - Cards: 1 – 1 - xG: Brighton 1.1 – 2.3 City Takeaway: City’s aura of invincibility is cracked—Brighton showed belief and bravery count.
---
Nott’m Forest vs West Ham – Prediction: 2‑1 | Actual: 0‑3 ❌ Forest were blown away after halftime. West Ham’s subs—Bowen, Paquetá, and Wilson—transformed a tight game into a rout (The Times). - Shots: 8 (2 on target) – 15 (6) - Corners: 4 – 7 - Cards: 2 – 0 Takeaway: Substitutions can swing games—Forest’s home edge wasn’t enough.
---
Liverpool vs Arsenal – Prediction: 2‑2 | Actual: 1‑0 ❌ We called chaos; got control. Szoboszlai’s thunderous free‑kick separated the sides (AS). Combined xG was just 0.4 + 0.5, the lowest of the season so far (The Guardian). - Shots: 13 (5 on target) – 12 (4) - Corners: 5 – 5 - Cards: 2 – 2 Takeaway: Big games can still be knife fights decided by one moment of quality.
---
Aston Villa vs Crystal Palace – Prediction: 1‑0 | Actual: 0‑3 ❌ Palace produced a ruthless away performance, shredding Villa despite the unusual Sunday evening kick‑off slot (TalkSport). - Shots: 9 (3 on target) – 12 (6) - Corners: 4 – 6 - Cards: 1 – 0 - xG: Villa 0.8 – 1.9 Palace Takeaway: Palace aren’t just gritty—they can overwhelm teams when confidence flows.
---
📊 Week 3 Prediction Scoreboard - 🎯 Exact scorelines: 0 - ⚖️ Correct results (incl. exacts): 2 (Chelsea, Man Utd) - ❌ Wrong: 8
GW3 Prediction vs Actual (consistency check)
| Fixture | Prediction | Actual | Result | Exact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea vs Fulham | 3–0 | 2–0 | ✅ | |
| Man United vs Burnley | 1–0 | 3–2 | ✅ | |
| Sunderland vs Brentford | 1–2 | 2–1 | ❌ | |
| Tottenham vs Bournemouth | 2–1 | 0–1 | ❌ | |
| Wolves vs Everton | 1–1 | 2–3 | ❌ | |
| Leeds vs Newcastle | 1–2 | 0–0 | ❌ | |
| Brighton vs Man City | 1–3 | 2–1 | ❌ | |
| Nott’m Forest vs West Ham | 2–1 | 0–3 | ❌ | |
| Liverpool vs Arsenal | 2–2 | 1–0 | ❌ | |
| Aston Villa vs Crystal Palace | 1–0 | 0–3 | ❌ |
---
📅 Prediction League Table
| Week | 🎯 Exact | ⚖️ Correct (incl. exact) | ❌ Wrong | 🏅 Points | |------|----------|--------------------------|----------|-----------| | 1 | 2 | 6 | 4 | 10 | | 2 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 9 | | 3 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 2 | | Total | 4 | 13 | 17 | 21 |
---
⚙️ Tweaks for Gameweek 4 1. Everton attack upgrade — clinical edge away from home. 2. Spurs inconsistency flag — dangerous vs giants, toothless vs blocks. 3. Sunderland’s home factor — noise and intensity boost model ratings. 4. Brighton variance — capable of punishing anyone. 5. Palace upgrade — no longer just gritty; add finishing threat.
---
Closing Thought This was a humbling week. From Brighton stunning City to Palace crushing Villa, models were ripped apart. But that’s the lesson: the Premier League is theatre, not just numbers. Every wrong call adds nuance to the next forecast. GW4, your move.