Premier League 2025–26 • Gameweek 4 Preview
A laboratory of late goals, unpredictable giants, and some very noisy promoted sides.Three weeks down, and already the league is shredding expectations. Brighton stunned City, Palace ran riot at Villa Park, Sunderland look fearless at home, and Spurs managed to flip from world‑beaters to toothless inside seven days. Our Poisson model took a beating in GW3 (2/10 correct results, 0 exacts), but the tweaks are in: Everton’s attack upgraded, Sunderland’s home edge boosted, and Spurs’ variance dialled up. Time to forecast GW4.
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Arsenal vs Nott’m Forest – Prediction: 2–0
Arsenal arrive after being edged by Liverpool, but their control and xG remain elite. Forest collapsed to West Ham at home, conceding three after halftime. - Model says: 2.2–0.8 xG - Why: Arsenal’s wide rotations will pin Forest deep. Forest away are weaker and unlikely to cope with sustained pressure. - Watch for: Arsenal’s response—expect intensity early.---
Bournemouth vs Brighton – Prediction: 1–2
Bournemouth stunned Spurs with compact discipline. Brighton, fresh from dismantling City, are high variance but buzzing. - Model says: 1.1–1.7 xG - Why: Brighton’s belief is high, and Bournemouth concede volume at home. But Brighton always give you chances. - Watch for: Another Brighton late winner—pattern is chaos late on.---
Crystal Palace vs Sunderland – Prediction: 1–1
Palace blitzed Villa away, Sunderland shocked Brentford. Both are running hot. - Model says: 1.3–1.2 xG - Why: Palace’s front three are flying, but Sunderland at home are noisy and fearless. Away, they tighten up but still compete. - Watch for: Set‑pieces—both sides dangerous in the air.---
Everton vs Aston Villa – Prediction: 2–1
Everton scored three at Wolves, showing a sharper attack. Villa looked brittle against Palace. - Model says: 1.7–1.3 xG - Why: Momentum is Everton’s. Villa away look vulnerable, and Everton’s forwards are clinical right now. - Watch for: Everton full‑backs driving numbers forward.---
Fulham vs Leeds – Prediction: 1–2
Fulham struggled at Chelsea, Leeds held Newcastle in a stalemate. - Model says: 1.0–1.5 xG - Why: Fulham’s lack of firepower is glaring. Leeds’ press and energy travel well. - Watch for: Leeds capitalising on turnovers.---
Newcastle vs Wolves – Prediction: 2–0
Newcastle failed to break down Leeds, but Wolves concede and overcommit. - Model says: 2.1–0.9 xG - Why: Newcastle create volume; Wolves’ defence leaks. St James’ will amplify. - Watch for: Isak or Wilson to cash in.---
West Ham vs Spurs – Prediction: 1–1
West Ham blew away Forest, Spurs looked blunt vs Bournemouth. - Model says: 1.4–1.4 xG - Why: Spurs are variance kings—brilliant or blank. West Ham are improving, but London derbies often cagey. - Watch for: Spurs’ response after criticism.---
Brentford vs Chelsea – Prediction: 1–2
Brentford slipped at Sunderland; Chelsea look ruthless after beating Fulham. - Model says: 1.1–1.8 xG - Why: Chelsea’s attack is relentless, wide overloads working. Brentford at home always competitive, but Chelsea sharper. - Watch for: Chelsea wingbacks vs Brentford’s deep block.---
Burnley vs Liverpool – Prediction: 1–3
Burnley tested United, but defensive frailty cost them. Liverpool ground out Arsenal with a set‑piece strike. - Model says: 0.9–2.4 xG - Why: Liverpool’s chaos game will overwhelm Burnley’s back line. - Watch for: Liverpool pressing triggering Burnley turnovers.---
Man City vs Man United – Prediction: 2–1
The blockbuster derby. City fell to Brighton; United edged Burnley in chaos. - Model says: 2.0–1.1 xG - Why: City dominate derbies at home, United fragile at the back. But United always carry transition threat. - Watch for: City’s response to criticism—expect a siege.---
🔑 Three Best Chances (GW4)
1. Arsenal to beat Forest – bounce‑back after Liverpool, superior in every metric. 2. Liverpool to beat Burnley – chaos game vs fragile defence. 3. Newcastle to beat Wolves – volume and intensity at St James’ too much.---
Closing Thought: GW3 humbled the numbers—Brighton and Palace ripped the model apart. But that’s the data gift: it adjusts. Everton’s rise, Spurs’ volatility, Sunderland’s energy—each added to the mix. GW4 brings derbies, comebacks, and another chance for the science to wrestle the chaos.