Gameweek 4 brought drama, derbies, and dominant statements. For once, the numbers found some balance—several predictions held, though a few surprise packages reminded us why this league never sits still. Let’s break it down fixture by fixture.
---
Arsenal vs Nott’m Forest – Prediction: 2‑0 | Actual: 3‑0 ✅ (Result only) Arsenal roared back after Anfield frustration, brushing Forest aside with control and composure. - Shots: 15 (7 on target) – 6 (2) - Corners: 8 – 3 - Cards: 1 – 1 - xG: Arsenal 2.1 – 0.7 Forest Takeaway: Arsenal remain relentless against weaker opposition; depth is showing.
---
Bournemouth vs Brighton – Prediction: 1‑2 | Actual: 2‑1 ❌ Bournemouth flipped the script. Despite Brighton pressure, the Cherries snatched a key win. - Shots: 9 (4 on target) – 14 (6) - Corners: 2 – 7 - Cards: 2 – 1 - xG: Bournemouth 1.4 – 1.5 Brighton Takeaway: Bournemouth’s compact resilience frustrates chaotic Brighton.
---
Crystal Palace vs Sunderland – Prediction: 1‑1 | Actual: 0‑0 ✅ (Result only) Neither side found the breakthrough in a tight contest. Palace dominated territory, but Sunderland held firm. - Shots: 11 (3 on target) – 7 (2) - Corners: 6 – 4 - Cards: 1 – 1 - xG: Palace 0.9 – 0.8 Sunderland Takeaway: Sunderland continue to look fearless—even away.
---
Everton vs Aston Villa – Prediction: 2‑1 | Actual: 0‑0 ❌ Our model upgraded Everton’s attack, but this was a stalemate of wasted chances. - Shots: 10 (3 on target) – 9 (3) - Corners: 4 – 5 - Cards: 2 – 1 - xG: Everton 1.1 – 1.0 Villa Takeaway: Everton’s edge deserted them; Villa steadied after last week’s collapse.
---
Fulham vs Leeds – Prediction: 1‑2 | Actual: 1‑0 ❌ Fulham struck early and clung on, punishing Leeds’ lack of ruthlessness. - Shots: 8 (2 on target) – 13 (4) - Corners: 3 – 6 - Cards: 1 – 3 - xG: Fulham 0.7 – 1.3 Leeds Takeaway: Leeds’ press creates volume but not always results.
---
Newcastle vs Wolves – Prediction: 2‑0 | Actual: 1‑0 ✅ (Result only) Newcastle dominated but needed patience to grind Wolves down. - Shots: 18 (6 on target) – 6 (1) - Corners: 9 – 2 - Cards: 1 – 2 - xG: Newcastle 2.2 – 0.6 Wolves Takeaway: Newcastle’s attack kept creating; Wolves lacked punch.
---
West Ham vs Spurs – Prediction: 1‑1 | Actual: 0‑3 ❌ Spurs’ volatility continues—this time with brilliance. Son and Maddison ran riot in Stratford. - Shots: 7 (2 on target) – 15 (7) - Corners: 2 – 6 - Cards: 3 – 1 - xG: West Ham 0.6 – 2.1 Spurs Takeaway: Spurs’ ceiling is high; variance remains their story.
---
Brentford vs Chelsea – Prediction: 1‑2 | Actual: 2‑2 ❌ A rollercoaster London derby saw both sides trade blows. - Shots: 12 (4 on target) – 14 (5) - Corners: 4 – 5 - Cards: 2 – 2 - xG: Brentford 1.3 – 1.6 Chelsea Takeaway: Chelsea’s relentlessness met Brentford’s stubborn home edge.
---
Burnley vs Liverpool – Prediction: 1‑3 | Actual: 0‑1 ✅ (Result only) Liverpool edged it but far less comfortably than forecast. - Shots: 9 (2 on target) – 12 (4) - Corners: 4 – 6 - Cards: 1 – 1 - xG: Burnley 0.8 – 1.5 Liverpool Takeaway: Liverpool ground it out; Burnley offered fight but no cutting edge.
---
Man City vs Man United – Prediction: 2‑1 | Actual: 3‑0 ✅ (Result only) City delivered a ruthless derby statement, overwhelming their rivals. - Shots: 17 (8 on target) – 7 (2) - Corners: 6 – 3 - Cards: 1 – 3 - xG: City 2.5 – 0.9 United Takeaway: City’s aura restored—United’s fragility exposed.
---
📊 Week 4 Prediction Scoreboard - 🎯 Exact scorelines: 0 - ⚖️ Correct results (incl. exacts): 5 (Arsenal, Palace, Newcastle, Liverpool, City) - ❌ Wrong: 5
GW4 Prediction vs Actual (consistency check)
| Fixture | Prediction | Actual | Result | Exact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal vs Forest | 2–0 | 3–0 | ✅ | |
| Bournemouth vs Brighton | 1–2 | 2–1 | ❌ | |
| Palace vs Sunderland | 1–1 | 0–0 | ✅ | |
| Everton vs Villa | 2–1 | 0–0 | ❌ | |
| Fulham vs Leeds | 1–2 | 1–0 | ❌ | |
| Newcastle vs Wolves | 2–0 | 1–0 | ✅ | |
| West Ham vs Spurs | 1–1 | 0–3 | ❌ | |
| Brentford vs Chelsea | 1–2 | 2–2 | ❌ | |
| Burnley vs Liverpool | 1–3 | 0–1 | ✅ | |
| Man City vs Man United | 2–1 | 3–0 | ✅ |
---
📅 Prediction League Table
| Week | 🎯 Exact | ⚖️ Correct (incl. exact) | ❌ Wrong | 🏅 Points | |------|----------|--------------------------|----------|-----------| | 1 | 2 | 6 | 4 | 10 | | 2 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 9 | | 3 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 2 | | 4 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 5 | | Total | 4 | 18 | 22 | 26 |
---
Closing Thought Gameweek 4 gave us balance: Arsenal’s control, Spurs’ chaos, City’s derby dominance. The model steadied, hitting half the results. But the hunt for exact scores continues—a reminder that in this league, margins are always razor‑thin.