Gameweek 5 lived up to the billing: derbies, drama, and a heavyweight showdown that didn’t disappoint. Let’s break it down fixture by fixture and see how the predictions fared.
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Arsenal vs Man City – Prediction: 1‑1 | Actual: 1‑1 ✅ (Exact) The title clash delivered tension but no winner. Arsenal pressed high, City responded with control—ultimately the model nailed it. - Shots: 12 (5 on target) – 11 (4) - Corners: 5 – 4 - Cards: 2 – 1 - xG: Arsenal 1.5 – 1.3 City Takeaway: Both sides flexed muscle, neither blinked. A statement of parity.
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Bournemouth vs Newcastle – Prediction: 1‑1 | Actual: 0‑0 ✅ (Result only) Another clean sheet for Bournemouth’s resolute defence. Newcastle probed but lacked cutting edge. - Shots: 7 (2 on target) – 13 (4) - Corners: 3 – 7 - Cards: 2 – 2 - xG: Bournemouth 0.9 – 1.1 Newcastle Takeaway: Bournemouth’s resilience continues to shock; Newcastle stuck in neutral.
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Brighton vs Tottenham – Prediction: 2‑2 | Actual: 2‑2 ✅ (Exact) Chaos called, chaos delivered. End‑to‑end and wide open, both teams punished mistakes. - Shots: 15 (6 on target) – 14 (5) - Corners: 5 – 5 - Cards: 3 – 2 - xG: Brighton 2.1 – 1.9 Spurs Takeaway: Unpredictable brilliance. Neither side can defend for long.
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Burnley vs Nott’m Forest – Prediction: 1‑1 | Actual: 1‑1 ✅ (Exact) Bottom‑end clash ended exactly as forecast. Fight, fouls, and shared frustration. - Shots: 10 (3 on target) – 9 (3) - Corners: 4 – 3 - Cards: 3 – 2 - xG: Burnley 1.0 – 1.0 Forest Takeaway: Both clubs stuck in stalemate mode—fine margins separate survival and struggle.
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Fulham vs Brentford – Prediction: 1‑2 | Actual: 3‑1 ❌ A derby surprise. Fulham exploded into life, out‑running and out‑finishing their rivals. - Shots: 11 (5 on target) – 10 (3) - Corners: 4 – 4 - Cards: 1 – 2 - xG: Fulham 1.6 – 1.1 Brentford Takeaway: Fulham found sharpness at last; Brentford exposed on transitions.
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Liverpool vs Everton – Prediction: 2‑0 | Actual: 2‑1 ✅ (Result only) Merseyside derby went Liverpool’s way again. Everton scrapped but class told. - Shots: 16 (6 on target) – 9 (3) - Corners: 6 – 2 - Cards: 2 – 3 - xG: Liverpool 2.2 – 0.9 Everton Takeaway: Liverpool’s press smothered Everton, though the margin was narrower than expected.
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Man United vs Chelsea – Prediction: 1‑2 | Actual: 2‑1 ❌ Shock of the weekend. United, reeling, produced a counter‑attacking sting. Chelsea dominated spells but wasted chances. - Shots: 9 (4 on target) – 15 (6) - Corners: 3 – 6 - Cards: 2 – 1 - xG: United 1.2 – 1.7 Chelsea Takeaway: A stay of execution for United; Chelsea undone by profligacy.
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Sunderland vs Aston Villa – Prediction: 2‑1 | Actual: 1‑1 ❌ Sunderland’s fairytale paused. Villa clawed back a point late. - Shots: 12 (4 on target) – 10 (3) - Corners: 6 – 4 - Cards: 1 – 2 - xG: Sunderland 1.4 – 1.2 Villa Takeaway: Sunderland energy still evident, but Villa showed grit for once.
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West Ham vs Crystal Palace – Prediction: 1‑2 | Actual: 1‑2 ✅ (Exact) Palace clinical again, nicking it away from home just as predicted. - Shots: 9 (3 on target) – 12 (5) - Corners: 4 – 6 - Cards: 2 – 2 - xG: West Ham 1.0 – 1.6 Palace Takeaway: Eze the difference-maker; West Ham continue to falter.
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Wolves vs Leeds – Prediction: 1‑2 | Actual: 1‑3 ✅ (Result only) Leeds’ press proved too much for Wolves’ fragile back line. - Shots: 8 (3 on target) – 13 (6) - Corners: 3 – 5 - Cards: 2 – 3 - xG: Wolves 1.0 – 1.5 Leeds Takeaway: Wolves still soft defensively; Leeds’ energy brings reward.
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📊 Week 5 Prediction Scoreboard - 🎯 Exact scorelines: 4 (Arsenal, Brighton, Burnley, Palace) - ⚖️ Correct results (incl. exacts): 8 - ❌ Wrong: 2
GW5 Prediction vs Actual (consistency check)
| Fixture | Prediction | Actual | Result | Exact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal vs City | 1–1 | 1–1 | ✅ | 🎯 |
| Bournemouth vs Newcastle | 1–1 | 0–0 | ✅ | |
| Brighton vs Spurs | 2–2 | 2–2 | ✅ | 🎯 |
| Burnley vs Forest | 1–1 | 1–1 | ✅ | 🎯 |
| Fulham vs Brentford | 1–2 | 3–1 | ❌ | |
| Liverpool vs Everton | 2–0 | 2–1 | ✅ | |
| Man United vs Chelsea | 1–2 | 2–1 | ❌ | |
| Sunderland vs Villa | 2–1 | 1–1 | ❌ | |
| West Ham vs Palace | 1–2 | 1–2 | ✅ | 🎯 |
| Wolves vs Leeds | 1–2 | 1–3 | ✅ |
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📅 Prediction League Table
| Week | 🎯 Exact | ⚖️ Correct (incl. exact) | ❌ Wrong | 🏅 Points | |------|----------|--------------------------|----------|-----------| | 1 | 2 | 6 | 4 | 10 | | 2 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 9 | | 3 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 2 | | 4 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 5 | | 5 | 4 | 8 | 2 | 16 | | Total | 8 | 26 | 24 | 42 |
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Closing Thought Gameweek 5 was the model’s redemption: four exacts and just two wrong. Arsenal vs City proved inseparable, Brighton and Spurs lived up to chaos billing, and Palace delivered again. Prediction discipline finally aligned with Premier League mayhem.