Gameweek 7 arrives with the league table taking early shape: Liverpool and Arsenal at the top, Palace continuing to surprise, and Wolves rooted to the bottom. Add in the midweek European results—Liverpool beaten, Spurs drawing, Arsenal and Chelsea winning, Villa and Palace impressing, Forest struggling—and the context is set for another intriguing round.
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Bournemouth vs Fulham – Prediction: 1–1
Two evenly matched sides on form and points. Bournemouth’s compactness clashes with Fulham’s inconsistent but dangerous attack. - Model says: 1.2–1.2 xG - Why: Neither side has a consistent cutting edge, so margins stay fine. - Narrative: Tight, scrappy, both settling for a point feels right.---
Leeds vs Tottenham – Prediction: 2–2
Leeds’ energy at Elland Road meets Spurs’ chaotic transitions. Spurs’ European draw showed both resilience and flaws, and Leeds thrive in high tempo battles. - Model says: 1.9–1.9 xG - Why: Leeds create chaos, Spurs respond in kind. - Narrative: End-to-end contest where both sides hit but neither land the knockout.---
Arsenal vs West Ham – Prediction: 2–0
Arsenal sharp after a European win, West Ham struggling at the bottom. Arsenal’s control at home should be too much. - Model says: 2.0–0.7 xG - Why: Arsenal dominate midfield, West Ham lacking confidence. - Narrative: Arsenal’s title push gathers momentum with a routine win.---
Man United vs Sunderland – Prediction: 1–1
United reeling after Brentford, Sunderland fearless in their first top-flight season. Sunderland’s direct play could trouble United’s shaky defence. - Model says: 1.3–1.2 xG - Why: United dominate possession but remain fragile. - Narrative: Sunderland punch above their weight again; United unable to impose.---
Chelsea vs Liverpool – Prediction: 2–2
Both fresh from Europe: Chelsea buoyant, Liverpool deflated. Chelsea’s attack may test Liverpool’s tired legs, but Liverpool rarely go quietly. - Model says: 1.7–1.7 xG - Why: Chelsea improving, Liverpool wounded but dangerous. - Narrative: Another heavyweight clash ending level, neither side grabbing control.---
Aston Villa vs Burnley – Prediction: 2–1
Villa boosted by European success, Burnley fighting for survival. Villa’s attacking momentum at home should make the difference. - Model says: 1.8–1.1 xG - Why: Burnley compact but weak under sustained pressure. - Narrative: Villa edge a scrappy game, Burnley still searching for answers.---
Everton vs Crystal Palace – Prediction: 1–2
Palace continue to shock, sitting 3rd and fresh from a European win. Everton remain patchy. - Model says: 1.1–1.5 xG - Why: Palace organised and clinical, Everton inconsistent. - Narrative: Palace ride the wave, edging another narrow win.---
Newcastle vs Nott’m Forest – Prediction: 2–1
Newcastle struggling for rhythm, Forest drained after Europe. The home crowd could tilt it Newcastle’s way. - Model says: 1.6–1.2 xG - Why: Forest stretched thin, Newcastle desperate for points. - Narrative: Newcastle grind out a much-needed win.---
Wolves vs Brighton – Prediction: 1–3
Wolves bottom of the table, Brighton unpredictable but always threatening. Wolves’ fragility under pressure should be exposed. - Model says: 0.9–2.2 xG - Why: Brighton create too many chances, Wolves concede too many. - Narrative: Wolves punished again, Brighton enjoy themselves on the road.---
Brentford vs Man City – Prediction: 1–3
Brentford brave at home, but City’s firepower is relentless. Brentford will test them physically, but City’s quality should prevail. - Model says: 1.1–2.5 xG - Why: Brentford dangerous in moments, City too clinical overall. - Narrative: Brentford push, City punish—routine away victory.---
🔑 Three Best Chances (GW7)
1. Arsenal to beat West Ham – gulf in form and quality. 2. Brighton to beat Wolves – bottom club outgunned. 3. Man City to beat Brentford – champions too strong.---
Closing Thought: Gameweek 7 throws up top vs top battles and bottom-end scraps. Chelsea–Liverpool headlines, Arsenal aim to assert dominance, while Wolves desperately search for a lifeline. The chaos rolls on.